Professor Cole has ten predictions for 2006. I’ve excerpted a few, and added my own:

1. Al-Qaeda's Ayman al-Zawahiri, whom the Bush administration has failed to capture after all this time, and who was probably responsible for the July 7 bombings in the London subway and the bombings in the Sinai in Egypt, will strike at US allies again in 2006.

Zawahiri is perhaps the most notorious of Osama’s fabled 1,001 Arabian Knights, because just like Scheherazade, the stories never end. I’ll add my own prediction here: look for the US to capture of kill a minimum of five “trusted lieutenants” and/or “number two’s” here, with a heavy concentration within 90 days of our mid-term elections in November.

4. The Iraqi government, on which the US is placing its bet, will limp along with less than $19 billion a year in petroleum income because of sabotage and guerrilla war, along with long-neglected fields and dilapidated plants and equipment. Most of that money will be absorbed by the need for internal security, reconstruction and paying off past reparations and debts, as well as by large-scale corruption and embezzlement (billions of dollars went missing during the government of Iyad Allawi in 2004).

As I’ve said before, that $9 Billion isn’t really missing. Several people in Iraq know exactly where it is. Bankers in Liechtenstein, Jordan and The Bahamas will continue to pop champagne corks in 2006.

5. The Iraqi parliament will pass fundamentalist Muslim legislation. Sometime in 2006, a majority of Iraqi parliamentarians will call for the withdrawal of US troops. The Iraqi government will have warm relations with Iran, but strained relations with Saudi Arabia and Jordan. The guerrilla war will continue.

Well, duh. As the year progresses and public and media pressure continue to discuss withdrawal, the reasons excuses why we are still there will become more outlandish and, on an international level, embarrassing.

7. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization composed of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan as members and India, Iran, Mongolia, and Pakistan as observers, will follow up on its success in getting US troops out of Uzbekistan and on strengthening energy cooperation between Kazakhstan and China on the one hand, and Russia and Kazakhstan on the other, as well as security cooperation between Russia and Uzbekistan. The conjuncture of gas, petroleum, Islam, terrorism and great power jockeying will keep the new Great Game going, this time with Russia, China and the United States all playing. The US hand is weak.

China will increase its efforts to get a better grip on Caucusus oil and succeed, through generous terms in trading weaponry and improved larger cooking pots in exchange for oil. Mr Rumsfeld will secretly wish he’d thought of the larger pots.

8. The US attempt to isolate Iran by putting boycotts on Chinese and other companies that deal with it will only prove effective for those companies that do a lot of business with the US. Moreover, it is easy enough for a company to hive off a de facto subsidiary to deal with Iran (ask Bechtel and Halliburton). And, rising powers like India that have relatively little trade with the US will tempted to choose energy from Iran over good diplomatic relations with the US.

As the US tries to get China to back off from improved trade with Iran, the Chinese Ambassdor and his permanent trade delegation in Washington will smile politely, express great regrets and gently suggest a rapid off-loading of US Treasury bills and a more wide-based investment of profits from sales to Wal-Mart.

9. New Orleans will for the most part not be rebuilt and will increasingly be eclipsed by Baton Rouge. Louisiana as a result will become a solid Red State. The Republican Party has no particular reason to rebuild a predominantly African-American city that reliably voted Democrat, just as its leader, George W. Bush, apparently had no particular reason to implement relief work there with any urgency or efficiency after the flood. Most of the $25 billion in reconstruction aid promised by the Federal government will never arrive.

President Guitar-Strummer and the Press-Puffery-of-the-day Administration will have to make another 9-11 speech or three to explain why a New Orleans reserved for wealthy white people, but comfortably insured by taxpayers is a good thing.

10. The United States will continue to lose global political influence because its government is running large deficits and going ever deeper into debt

Sigh. Happy friggin New Year, everyone.

Read the rest here.