Reading an article in today’s Guardian newspaper we find that Jim Baker’s Iraq Study Group, which has not yet rendered its complete report, will recommend a four-point ‘victory’ strategy that the Pentagon likes. The Study Group visited with Mr Bu$h several days ago to explore “just what Mr Bu$h will accept” in the words of the usual unnamed source. Frankly this approach is surprising, since we were told the purpose of the group was to explain to Mr Bu$h the relationship between the smoking gun in his holster and the hole in his foot.

These four points appear to include a massive increase in the number of troops assigned there. One figure being bandied around the Beltway is 20,000 because after all, when you’ve crapped out seven times in a row at the tables, the law of averages says you have to get even with the house on the next roll of the dice, right? Unspoken is where these 20,000 extra troops are going to come from, but they’re going to apparently go to Baghdad because you can’t claim to hold a country if you can’t hold the capital.

The next point appears to feature the need for regional cooperation to effect the successful rehabilitation of Iraq. As the Guardian puts it,

This could involve the convening of an international conference of neighbouring countries or more direct diplomatic, financial and economic involvement of US allies such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

"The extent to which that [regional cooperation] will include talking to Iran and Syria is still up for debate," said Patrick Cronin, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "Externally, US policy is focused on what is achievable. Some quarters believe Syria in some ways could be helpful. There are more doubts about Iran but Iran holds more cards. Some think it's worth a try."

There are many who would argue that it’s in Saudi Arabia’s and Kuwait’s best interests to cover Mr Bu$h’s latest bet at the Baghdad Casino, since if he rolls snake eyes an eighth time the insurgents/al-Quaeda/dead enders/Baathists/resisters might just decide to open new casinos in Riyadh and Kuwait City. There are also many who would argue this is a sucker bet, and maybe it’s time to walk away from the tables and visit the shops, looking for some $14,000 crocodile handbags.

Point three focuses on reviving the national reconciliation process between Shia, Sunni and other ethnic and religious parties. According to the sources, creating a credible political framework will be portrayed as crucial in persuading Iraqis and neighbouring countries alike that Iraq can become a fully functional state.

This is the only sensible option although this course of action is probably about three years too late. After years of increasing blood-letting, escalating torture and ever more imaginative ways of killing religious and political opponents would a sane man accept this option as realistic?

Point four is accompanied by the thudding crash of the other shoe.

Lastly, the sources said the study group recommendations will include a call for increased resources to be allocated by Congress to support additional troop deployments and fund the training and equipment of expanded Iraqi army and police forces. It will also stress the need to counter corruption, improve local government and curtail the power of religious courts.

Well, we are in the last throes (hat tip to Dick “dick” Cheney) of a lame duck Republican Congress, so it’s quite likely they’ll authorize more borrowing from the Chinese in order to help cover Mr Bu$h’s last throw of the dice. After all, it’s not their great-grandchildren who will be paying it off, it will be yours.

It’s unclear whether the 20,000 troops will be all fighters or fighters and slighters, since the standard US Army TOE requires about 10 support personnel for each combatant. Regardless, at this distance it seems unlikely that many will make much of a difference because the need is now and not six weeks for now which is probably the soonest they can be put in the field.

General John Abizaid appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee yesterday and urged that more troops be put into Iraq, as the White House had instructed him to do. Rejecting the rapidly growing public sentiment to get out of Iraq,

Abizaid told Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., who favors sending additional forces to stabilize Baghdad, that sending 20,000 more U.S. troops to Iraq might "achieve a temporary effect," but that he didn't believe that the Army and the Marine Corps could "sustain the commitment."

This is immaterial of course, when the alternative is for Mr Bu$h to admit he made a mistake.

General George Casey, speaking in Baghdad,

[A]lso repeated what U.S. commanders have been saying for some time -- that the U.S. has enough troops in Iraq and that increasing troops wouldn't improve the situation. "As I have said from the beginning, I will ask for what I need to get the job done, and I have," he said.

It seems General Casey has not been advised that the same shooter is doubling down and is still rolling the dice.