Readers may remember that on the past weekend Mr Rove had a heated dispute during an interview with some voice on National Corporate Radio over the meaning of pre-election polls.
Via Bryan’s fine little corner of the internet tubes, we learn that cat daddy and Dr squeaky have gained access to the raw data in Mr Rove’s poll.
Comments
I heard this "local consideration" stuff a lot prior to the election.
I believe that Herr Rove misses the following point.
Looking at Texas, for example, there have been about 240 combat deaths. Probably not all resulting from tours in Iraq - but easily a very high percentage.
So that would be roughly 75 per year since the war started.
If 75 more murders occurred in Texas in 2006 vs. 2005 - the murder rate per 100,000 would jump from 6.4 to 6.76. The media would probably round it up to 6.8.
A close to a one half percent jump in the murder rate would be a big local issue. Herr Rove does not understand that those who have problems with this war view the war casualties similarly.
I used Texas stats 'cause I had them in my head. I have no info that the voters in Texas actually see it that way. But obviously voters in other states did.
A slight shift here, Lurch. You have said that the injured and wounded who ultimately die in Germany or back in the States are not included in the death count. Do you know how they are classified? Just curious.
Thanks for your observation, Killer. I have a lot of grey hair today, so I'm just going to accept your Texas statistics as accurate, without discussing the deeper philosophical question of just what Texans, home of all bad political ideas, really think (and does it matter?)
But still, I agree with what you say; the nonsense spouted in the past about Iraq being safer than Washington or New York is just silly. People may not be able to quote crime statistics when asked but they are aware of whether crime is increasing or dropping. In many small US towns, every family has been touched by US troop deaths, either directly or experientially when you count friends, school mates, etc. The war in Iraq may not be a burning issue, but the dead troops are, and Americans expressed that on Tuesday.
My understanding is that wounded who die in German or US hospitals are just reported as service casualties. This is part of the Bu$hCo mandate to minimize the effects of casualties by demanding cargo planes unloading caskets at Andrews and Dover AFB not be photographed.
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