Firstly, as most people who pay attention now understand, it won’t be a surge. Troops scheduled to rotate back to the US for rest, refit, replenishment, and a chance to see their families won’t. Troops scheduled to return to Iraq after their planned 12 to 18 months at home will be sent earlier. Sorry troops, too bad families, wives, children, mothers, fathers; sometimes sacrifices have to be made in order to maintain the fiction that we’re doing something reputable in Iraq. And what’s more important? Your family’s happiness or Mr Bu$h’s reputation?

Surge politics seems quite complicated and yet is very simple. Fred Kagan and his morally corrupt Likudnik operatives at PNAC and the AEI demand a large troop increase in order to salvage their war-mongering lusts to eliminate Israel’s military and diplomatic threats in the Middle East. The fact that their original plan to invade Iraq and transform it into the first 21st century corporate state failed is immaterial. Ideologues must always be right. An admission of failure is more than a statement of a poor plan; it is an admission of professional incompetence, which can mean loss of face, income and future influence.

We have been treated for about a week to all sorts of stage-managed “news” stories: all the Generals in the military are against the idea of a surge; all the troops in Iraq are in favor of it; Secretary Gates is keeping an open mind and will make a decision on the “facts.” Mr Bu$h hasn’t made up his mind and will wait until after he talks with the Generals and hears Secretary Gates’ report.

We keep hearing that that the JCS and the field Generals (principally Abizaid, Casey and Chiarelli) are opposed to more troops at this time. GEN Abizaid famously testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee that he didn’t feel any need for more troops, apparently shooting some holes in Senator John McCain’s flagship, USS Presidential 2008. Both Casey and Chiarelli are on record that they have no use for an increase in the number of troops in Iraq, and strictly speaking that‘s true unless the mission changes.

Those Generals have now been instructed that they do, in fact, support Mr Bu$h’s urgent need to prove Mr Kagan and himself to be military geniuses.

Generals approve troop `surge' Recommendation regarded as key to Bush plans in Iraq

WASHINGTON -- Top U.S. military commanders in Iraq have decided to recommend a "surge" of fresh American combat forces, eliminating one of the last remaining hurdles to proposals being considered by President Bush for a troop increase, a defense official familiar with the plan said Friday.

The approval of a troop increase plan by top Iraq commanders, including Gen. George Casey and Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, comes days before Bush is to unveil a new course for the troubled U.S. involvement in Iraq. Bush still must address concerns among some Pentagon officials and overcome opposition from Congress, where many Democrats favor a blue-ribbon commission's recommendation for a gradual withdrawal. But the recommendation by the commanders in Iraq is significant because Bush has placed prime importance on their advice. The U.S. command in Iraq decided to recommend an increase of troops several days ago, prior to meetings in Baghdad this week with Defense Secretary Robert Gates, the defense official said.

Note carefully the second lede: “Recommendation regarded as key to Bush plans in Iraq” – that tells you everything.

It’s not surprising, of course. Abizaid, Casey, Chiarelli all wanted to conduct a clean war, eliminate a danger to humanity, and then decamp from Iraq to US bases. But when they discovered the truth of what Mr Bu$h and his Likudnik advisers planned they went along, because careerism is more important than those wonderful words Duty, Honor, Country which used to mean something at our military academies.

Gates, who returned to Washington on Friday, will join Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley in meetings with Bush on Saturday at Camp David. White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said Bush was not expected to make a final decision on the administration's new policy.

Commanders have been skeptical of the value of increasing troops, and the decision represents a reversal for Casey, the highest-ranking officer in Iraq. Casey and Gen. John Abizaid, the top commander in the Middle East who will step down in March, have long resisted adding more troops in Iraq, arguing that it could delay the development of Iraqi security forces and increase anger at the United States in the Arab world.

Camp David is where Mr Bu$h likes to go when he’s planning the deaths of many people. In this case, the “many people” will be the Shiites of Baghdad, specifically the Mahdi Army, the 70,000 strong armed force supporting Muqtada al-Sadr. After that military and political danger to the puppet Iraqi national government is whittled down, they will be able to turn to Anbar province where the Sunnis are more powerful than US occupation forces.

Al-Sadr is a cleric and his followers are apparently fanatically loyal to him for several reasons. His father was a great Imam, the Grand Ayatolla Mohammed Mohammed al-Sadeq al-Sadr, who was killed with several of his sons by Saddam Hussein. This accident of birth and circumstances gives Mr al-Sadr great standing in Iraqi religion and politics, and he’s making the most of it, either for the sake of his country, his Shiite sect, or his own political future.

When Secretary Gates made his visit this week to Iraq, “fact-gathering” with various generals (i.e., getting them on board with what our ruler, Mr Bu$h wants,) he famously had a sit-down breakfast with some enlisted men one morning and was told by a Specialist Jason T Glenn of the 101st MI Bn,

I really think we need more troops here,” said Specialist Jason T. Glenn, one of several soldiers at a breakfast meeting with Mr. Gates who backed the idea. “With more presence here,” he said, security might improve to a point that “we can get the Iraqi Army trained up.”

The NY Times article is revealing if you look carefully,

It was not clear how the soldiers who met with Mr. Gates had been selected, but in a show of hands he requested, about half said they were serving their second tour in Iraq and the rest said they were in their first deployment.

Several soldiers said the Iraqi Army and police were improving but were not competent enough for them to shift to a supporting role. Many Iraqi soldiers and police officers do not show up regularly for work, they said, and some tip off insurgents and sectarian militias about coming military operations.

“Are they ready to take it on themselves?” Mr. Gates asked, referring to the Iraqi security forces. Sgt. Christopher Coulter, an infantryman with the First Infantry Division, replied, “Not now, but they’re getting a lot better”

When Mr. Gates asked, “Do you think we need more American troops?” a majority of the soldiers nodded their heads or murmured, “Yes, sir.”

Well, hell, I know how they were picked, don’t you? Bu$hCo and CENTCOM are famous for dog-and-pony shows. Some high-speed, low drag Major grabs up a couple of troops, tells them “Shave close tomorrow because you’re having breakfast with Secretary Gates. Here’s a list of the things you’re going to tell him. Go back to your hooches, memorize them, and report back to me at 1500 so we can run through them.”

Like LT Cmdr Jeff Huber, I’ve been through this kabuki myself.

Cloud notes that "It was not clear how the soldiers who met with Mr. Gates had been selected." It may not have been clear to Cloud, but it's plain as day to me. I can't count the number of staged events like this I saw in the course of my career--a supposedly informal meeting between hand picked volunteers and a VIP where the hand picked volunteers tell the VIP what he wants to hear while media reps look on. (Footage of the breakfast appeared on MSNBC Friday morning, along with the message that enlisted personnel want more troops in Iraq.)

We need those extra troops in Iraq later next year when Mr Bu$h agrees with Israel to start the attacks on Iran.

UPDATE: It seems there was too much post 'Hanukkah, pre-Christmas cheer and I erred in this post. Jeff Huber, who's an eminent modern historian and a fairly reasonable man actually retired as a Commander and not as a Lieutenant Commander. I regret the error, understanding that it's a bitch to be a lieutenant-anything in this world and herewith apologize even as I switch eggnog bags on my IV, which is what caused all the confusion to begin with.