Target: Iran
Posted by Lurch on January 17, 2007 • Comments (0)Permalink

Coordinating an attack against Iran is a complicated business, but the various incremental preparations are now well under way. All information presented here has been collected from public sites on the internets. (Thanks to Alaska Senator Ted Stevens for not sending emails, so the tunes are not too clogged.)

WHAT?
The attack will primarily consist of air strikes against numerous Iranian installations known or suspected to be involved with nuclear production, even to the extent of taking out reactors and facilities plainly associated with peaceful pursuits and not able to produce a weaponized product.

WHO?

There are two primary candidates for attacking Iran: Israel and the US.

Israel
Douglas Herman has written as plausible an account as I could ever manage, and far more detailed.

United States

Where are the Carriers?

(scroll down to the light blue)

Additionally, since the US strategic goal is seizure and control of Iran’s oil production there must be assaults and seizures of oil production platforms and wellheads in the Persian Gulf.

Coincidentally, there are two Marine Expeditionary Groups present in the Persian Gulf.

Note that Expeditionary Strike Group 7, presently assigned to WestPac, could be sent into the Gulf in time for any action in late March or early April.

There are also Marine land units that could be available.

MSNBC reported yesterday that Saudi Arabia is quite prepared to send her own troops into Anbar province if Iraqi Prime Minster Maliki is unable to rein in Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army.

Saudi Arabia believes the Iraqi government is not up to the challenge and has told the United States that it is prepared to move its own forces into Iraq should the violence there degenerate into chaos, a senior U.S. official told NBC News on Tuesday.

Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal made no effort to mask his skepticism Tuesday about President Bush’s proposal to send 21,000 more U.S. troops to Iraq to stem sectarian fighting.

“We agree with the full objectives set by the new plan,” Saud said at a joint news conference in Riyadh with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who is traveling in the region selling Bush’s plan. “We are hoping these objectives can be accomplished, but the means are not in our hands. They are in the hands of the Iraqis themselves.”


That’s rather surprising, since the Saudi army is not considered a very efficient fighting force. The expressed willingness to mix into domestic Iraqi matters is unsettling. The fear of Iranian projected power is that serious a matter.

Yet, as we noted here, the return of Saudi Prince Bandar, after 22 years’ service as Ambassador to the US signaled a new phase in Saudi external politics.

While reports of how far Bandar has gone in supporting Cheney's desire for military action vary, insiders report that Bandar has "essentially assured" the Vice President that Saudi Arabia could be moved to accept and possibly support American military action against Iran. Another source has reported to me that Bandar himself strongly supports Cheney's views of a military response to Iran.

Since there seems to be some very real doubt that Maliki will be able to control the coming Baghdad explosion, or that he even wants to, we can assume the Saudi offer is more than just saber rattling. Anbar, a Sunni hotbed of anti-American energy has been considered “lost” to the occupation forces, according to a once-secret Marine Corps report from last year. It is considered so chaotic that the Likud plan to re-conquer Iraq that Napoleonic War expert Fred Kagan put forward envisioned the use of “three or four” Marine regiments to calm the upheaval.

Do these fools actually think that the introduction of Sunni troops from Saudi Arabia will quell the revolt?

But if the Saudi offer is real, and is implemented that might leave “three or four” Marine regiments with no task in Anbar. They might be of great help at the Iraq/Iran border, performing “security duties.”

As Time magazine has noted:

Bush and other officials have amplified their denunciations of Iranian "meddling" in Iraq, and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice indicated that the President had signed an order authorizing a broad military campaign against Iranian networks operating inside Iraq. In an interview with TIME, Rice even said that she could not rule out the possibility that U.S. troops might cross the Iraq border into Iran in pursuit of Iranians suspected of moving weapons to Iraqi militias. [emph added] U.S. officials stress that the purpose here is simply protecting U.S. troops, but a number have reportedly said the purpose is to counter Iranian efforts to thwart the U.S. in Iraq — and, according to the New York Times, also to curb Iran's ambitions to strengthen its strategic influence in the region through its primacy in Iraq.

So there’s a convenient place to put those few Marine regiments. Just in case – you know – just in case some Iranian weapons smugglers are discovered, and a hot pursuit is needed.


WHEN?

For reasons of security, the opening attacks would probably be at night, during a new moon phase. This would provide maximum effect for US stealth aircraft (F-117s, B-2s and F-22s.) While the F-117s and B-2s would most likely be dedicated to facility attack, the F22s would be assigned to force protection and air superiority.

The Air Force announced forward deployment of F-117s to South Korea last week.

B2s typically are deployed from their home base, Whiteman AFB (Missouri) to overseas facilities at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, Guam, and an RAF base in the UK.

A squadron of F22s will be deployed to Okinawa in early February.

Global security.org estimates the attack is in approximately 28 days.

Iran strike timeline and countdown clock

NOTE: There is certainly a good chance that American domestic politics will entangle Mr Bu$h's third (or fourth if you count Somalia) war of aggression, and these plans may require another month of warming up, including much more terrifying rhetoric of alleged Iranians sneaking across our undefended borders, and skulking under our beds at night, waiting to cut our throats while we're all asleep, or maybe we'll start hearing about those alleged suitcase bombs again.

Look for an April tree-off. Mixed doubles. Strict rules of golf.



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