Writing in Open Democracy, Paul Rogers points out some fascinating naval facts, including the decision to deploy a second Carrier Battle Group to the Persian Gulf region after four years. First, a recap:

We have noted that US carriers are carefully scheduled, their movements planned far in advance in regard to US global commitments. If a curious individual wanted to know who was where, a handy online tool spots the units:

We noted also that USS Reagan, which had only recently returned from a Middle East deployment, was being sent to the Western Pacific to replace USS Kitty Hawk so that some maintenance could be performed at Yokosuka, Japan, which is Kitty Hawk’s home port.

As Paul Rogers explains,

What is a bit unusual here is that the Kitty Hawk's three-month maintenance work is being undertaken by the crew, not external contractors, with the ship retaining the ability to deploy at short notice if need be. Furthermore, this maintenance started on 8 January, whereas the Ronald Reagan carrier battle-group will not even arrive in the area until mid-February. This does not seem to fit with standing in for the Kitty Hawk and does mean that another carrier battle-group could actually be deployed to the Gulf at short notice. Moreover, this is a strike group that has a crew experienced in recent operations in the Gulf.

If one was planning a Persian Gulf adventure, merely striking Iranian nuclear research and production facilities, which are quite numerous, would not be enough.

One would also want to strike at oil production facilities and wellheads in the Gulf, either destroying them, or seizing them in order to halt production, while maintaining possession of the facilities. A useful method of doing this might be US Marines, assigned to a Marine Amphibious Ready Group.

Paul Rogers also has some observations about this:

The current ESG in the Gulf is centred on the USS Boxer, together with the USS Dubuque and the USS Comstock, as well as a cruiser, a destroyer and other supporting vessels. This flotilla alone has well over 2,000 marines on board, equipped with helicopters, AV8B strike aircraft, landing craft, tanks, armoured vehicles, an array of logistics support and even military hovercraft. It is designed to be highly versatile but is particularly suited to coastal and near-coastal operations against defended positions. The Boxer ESG has been in the area since late October and, in the normal way of things, might have another two months to go before being replaced by another group.

And,

what has not been widely noticed is that a second expeditionary strike group - based on a sister ship to the Boxer, the USS Bataan - transited the Suez canal into the Red Sea on 30 January and has joined the US navy's fifth fleet, responsible for US naval operations in the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea and surrounding waters.

Furthermore, the Bataan ESG is a particularly powerful flotilla; it includes two more amphibious warfare ships, USS Shreveport and USS Oak Hill, the guided missile-cruiser USS Vella Gulf, the guided missile-destroyer USS Nitze, the frigate USS Underwood and the nuclear-powered attack submarine USS Scranton.

Thus the naval forces now gathering in the region include two carrier battle-groups and two expeditionary strike groups, with the possibility of yet another carrier battle-group, centred on the USS Ronald Reagan, being barely ten days away.

All of these facts, coupled with the Bu$h malAdministration’s unceasing propaganda wave designating Iran as the cause of all things bad in Iraq, indicate a determined effort to “prove” that Iran can only be “dealt with” militarily, as the Likudnik operatives that control our nation’s foreign policy have demanded for 10 years.

By the dark moon period of April, all the pieces will be in place.