Who is the fox? (I am the fox)
Who are you? (I am me)
Who is me? (Me is a thief)
You'll bring your poor, poor mother grief, so

After the fox, after the fox
Off to the hunt with chains and locks
So, after the fox, after the fox
Someone is always chasing after the fox

Burt Bacharach

There’s a report that US commanders in Iraq, expecting Congress to impose some sort of timeline soon, are switching their emphasis from the Baghdad environs to the wilder west, in the Anbar region.

BAGHDAD — U.S. commanders plan a summer of stepped-up offensives against Al Qaeda in Iraq as they tailor strategy to their expectation that Congress soon will impose a timeline for drawing down U.S. forces here.

The emphasis on Al Qaeda, described by commanders in interviews here this week, marks a shift in focus from Shiite Muslim militias and death squads in Baghdad. It reflects the belief of some senior officers in Iraq that the militias probably will reduce attacks once it becomes clear that a U.S. pullout is on the horizon. By contrast, they believe Al Qaeda in Iraq could be emboldened by a withdrawal plan and must be confronted before one is in place.

Since the Army feels that the a-Q senior leadership escaped their dragnet in the Baghdad belts it isn’t a bad idea to try to keep after them. There haven’t been any stenography pieces in the major newspapers for a day or two, so it might be reasonable for the Army to believe they’ve gotten what they’re going to get in Baghdad and environs. There hasn’t been much exulting in print and I wonder whether the MNF-I considers the operations in Baghdad and Baquba failures?

This can be a very tricky and politically dangerous shift in focus. When the escalation was gearing up, the Army’s focus was on the Mahdi Army, which is loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr, who apparently instructed his followers to go to ground and not to confront the US forces. The Army then sifted to the Sunni insurgents, and everyone who raised a weapon was designated “al Qaeda,” surely a poitical decision made in Washington.

U.S. officials, burned by previous claims of progress that turned sour, are offering only the most guarded of forecasts for the current offensives.

"This is the most diabolical enemy out there. I've never seen anything like it," the top U.S. commander here, Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, said in an interview.

"It is far and away the most complex situation we've been in during my time in uniform," he said. "I've done two other tours here, and this is far and away, orders of magnitude, more complex."

It‘s a bit disappointing to learn that the man who was charged with overseeing the writing of the Army’s counterinsurgency manual, and who has been lionized as an expert in that sort of warfare, is so easily flummoxed once he’s off the sand table.

David Kilcullen, a former Australian Army officer and GEN Petraeus’ primary counterinsurgency adviser says he is very realistic about the situation in Iraq.

"We haven't turned the tide. We haven't turned the corner, there isn't light at the end of the tunnel. But what we have done is take a failing enterprise and put it on a sound long-term footing."

A reduction in U.S. forces will happen, he added. "We will downsize. Absolutely," he said. "But what we are trying to do is put the operation on a sound footing so the Iraqis can handle it, and we can make it sufficiently stable."

The push against Al Qaeda in Iraq, including the offensive over the last two weeks in Baqubah, north of Baghdad, offers several potential advantages for U.S. forces.

The fight involves the kind of high-intensity operations that play to U.S. strengths. It pits American forces against an opponent that the U.S. public already considers an enemy, and provides clear "metrics" for measuring success.

A lot of observers noted that everyone was al Qaeda, especially every dead body. This was a political decision, probably brought about by Mr Bu$h’s plummeting poll ratings.

As for using body counts as a measure of success. – Hello, Vietnam.

The Army leaders believe that if they can show some progress against “al Qaeda” this summer, it might give the national government some breathing room to get themselves in order before the expected drawdowns begin – possibly after September, although some observers believe that Mr Bu$h will insist that each soldier withdrawn from Iraq be replaced by another. Anything less might be interpreted as his failure, an as we all know, Mr Bu$h never makes a mistake.

So, it will be off to Anbar this summer, chasing after all those escaped al Aqeda leaders.