US troops supported by Iraqi Army and national police forces have begun a clearing operation in Baquba, attempting to eliminate the insurgents they missed in Anbar.

BAQUBA, Iraq, June 19 — In more than four years in Iraq, American forces have been confounded by insurgents who have often slipped away only to fight another day. The war in Iraq has been likened to the arcade game of whack-a-mole, where as soon as you knock down one mole another pops up.

Taking the fight to insurgents from Al Qaeda did not so much destroy them in Anbar Province as dislodge them, prompting the fighters to build up their strength elsewhere, including Baquba, the capital of Diyala Province.

So the planners of this latest operation are attempting to plug the holes that have allowed the insurgents to escape in the past. The goal is not merely to reclaim western Baquba from insurgent control, but to capture or kill the estimated 300 fighters to 500 fighters who are believed to be based in that part of the city.

This makes a certain military sense in that establishing a cordon around the city theoretically bottles up the supposed al-Qaeda fighters inside. We can probably expect a large butcher’s bill; the figure of 300 to 500 al-Qaeda indicates they have to produce a lot of Iraqi bodies to prove success. Of course, while insurgents and fighters are tabulated, we don’t bother counting civilians casualties.

Some commanders are pointing to Fallujah as the wrong way to do things. They’re actually referring to the city that used to be called Fallujah, as reports indicate that it was fairly well destroyed during several attempts to pacify the place, or as CENTCOM likes to describe it, eliminating the insurgents inside.

Before they took off on the city the last time, the Americans spread a lot of fliers advising the citizens to evacuate the city and apparently many of the insurgents did just that, exiting along with the innocent residents. While MNF-I has been careful to not allow reporters and cameramen near the place, some verbal reports compare it to photographs of Berlin after the end of the war.

This time the plan seems to be to close off the exits and carefully screen anyone seeking to leave the city, thereby making sure no fighters escape. Leaflets have been distributed by helicopter warning everyone to stay indoors while the search goes on. It may be that whoever devised that policy isn’t the one who does the food shopping at home in the States.

The appeal appeared to have little effect, though, as large groups of civilians mingled on the streets Tuesday and some students even sought to go to the local university.

The presence of so many civilians on an urban battlefield affords the operatives from Al Qaeda another possible means to elude their American pursuers. If the insurgents do not manage to sneak out, some may hide their weapons and try to blend with the city’s residents.

To frustrate such plans, the Americans intend to take fingerprints and other biometric data from every resident who seems to be a potential fighter after they and Iraqi forces have gained control of the western side of the city. The Americans will also test for the presence of explosive material on suspects’ hands.

Theoretically, I suppose this could work, as long as the fighters resist, don’t have ID cards with local Baquba addresses, and abandon or hide their weapons. And, presumably don’t handle explosives.

In western Baquba it appears some fighters have put up resistance, engaging in firefights with US troops. It appears that the fighters may have had plenty of time to prepare the battleground before the clearing operation began.

An indication of what may be in store for those units came Tuesday when a Bradley fighting vehicle was upended by a large, buried bomb, which killed an American crew member. The insurgents have fortified their position by burying many such bombs and laying wires that can be triggered from safe houses. What made the loss of the Bradley particularly worrisome is that the explosion occurred in a heavily trafficked area that American forces had considered successfully cleared. [emph added]

Robert Farley, writing at LGM points out some logical inconsistencies stemming from the current clearing operations in the vicinity of Bakauba in Diyala provice.

I'm as skeptical of the latest offensive effort as of just about all the other offensives that US forces have launched in Iraq, and I'm wondering whether the planning and execution of this operation reveals some frustration in the Army with the Surge. The very first thing that a counter-insurgency expert will tell you is that sweeps don't work; the insurgents always manage to escape, and there's no way to cover all of the exits[.]

Because of Mr Bu$h’s plummeting polls, the malAdministration is doubly anxious to supply some signs of success, since they live and die by daily reports of good news. Thus we have one or more brigades concentrating on this cordon battle supported by large numbers of Apache gunships and the frequent drive-bys of Air Force tactical ground strikes.

We can expect stunning casualty figures among US and Iraqis.

Now, maybe this offensive will achieve what no other counter-insurgency offensive has achieved (barring perhaps some minor local successes), and actually trap the 500 or so fighters that look like everyone else amid a civilian population that hasn't fled. If history is any guide, however, they won't; they'll catch and kill some, many more will escape, plenty of civilians will either be killed or have their houses destroyed, and little of any significance will be accomplished.

As a commenter at LGM noted, “The drumbeat of awful news out of Iraq is now being counterbalanced by "good" news. Three words: gun camera footage.