One of the most troubling aspects of considering an administration in trouble is its inability to present a coherent policy, either in generalities or in specifics. Besieged on all sides as a result of foolish, careless, and opportunistic ideological policy decisions, today’s White House gang seems to be floundering in its direction.

One good example is the Bu$h malAdministration’s Middle East policy. There appear to be two different, contradictory policy thrusts: The lunatics, headed by Mr Cheney and his Likudnik assistants, who seem determined to reshape the Middle East by violence and conquest in order to destroy all vestiges of civilized Arab (and Persian) nationhood and the “moderates,” headed for the moment by Defense Secretary Robert Gates and our alleged Russian expert and concert pianist Condoleeza Rice, who has Peter-Principled herself into the office of the Secretary of State. Strangely enough the Likudnik lunatics describe themselves as “the Vulcans” – a strange appellation for people who appear to get their woodies discussing unleashing thermonuclear warfare, which most logical Trekkies would agree is more like the way Klingons do business.

I and many other far better writers have discussed the Likudnik wet dreams a number of times so rather than reiterate it all, I wanted to point to yesterday’s essay on enabling the destruction of Iran by mendacious wargaming.

Bernhard takes a look at things today and sees quite another scenario, and this points up the evident floundering.

This is quite speculative, but there are some data points that suggest a big shift has happened.

The Bush administration may have turned away from its Sunni allies in the wider Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and towards some rapprochement with Iran.

Consider:

* The main agitator for an attack on Iran in Cheney's office has been removed.
* Bush himself moves the blame for U.S. problems in Iraq away from alleged Iranian insurgency support and towards al-Qaida.
* Information leaked to newspapers emphasizes the connection of al-Qaida in Iraq and Saudi financing and highlights Pakistan's lack of action against al-Qaida in Pashtun-land.
* High level U.S. officials press the Saudis to retract support for the Sunni side in Iraq.
* Bush's intimate relation with the Iran friendly Maliki in Iraq is pointed out.
* Recent talks between the U.S. and Iran seem to expand. [emph added[

Bernhard backs up his thinking with some good references and expands on his premise. There is a lot to consider here, but I remain unconvinced that Mr Bu$h is even capable of considering turning his back on the Saudi family/monarchy because his family has been comfortably in business with those people for over 30 years and he himself has been stroked, financed and affirmed by them for most of his adult (please – no snarky comments) life.

It’s very frustrating to write about the executive of a country who makes all his decisions based upon what is best for himself rather than for the nation’s interests. Citizens of declared monarchies expect the wearer of the crown to act on behalf of the commonweal because it is no longer the 11th century. Louis XIV is long dead, but the guiding principle of “L’État, c’est moi” lives on in Washington. This can been seen more and more clearly as ever more of the government is bent to the task of protecting Gerge Bu$h and Karl Rove from retribution for their past actions and decisions. But the very fact that the role of Saudi Arabia in enabling the Iraqi civil war is being discussed more openly in the serious press is heartening.

Since Bernhard openly admits to speculation I’ll happily pile on: Mr Bu$h and Karl Rove are so distracted right now by the molasses-in-January Congress that others are attempting to influence events into a saner channel. I’m not certain the departure of David Wurmser will have as much effect as posited, but hope really does spring eternal, even if it isn’t a strategy.

Wurmser and all the other Likudniki know the door to the Oval Office is always open to them, and their war-lust will continue to trouble us for years to come. People like Bill Kristol and his monstrous dreams of dead Arabs (and Persians) will still be flouted on national television every Sunday on the Fox Opinion stations.

Regardless of what happens in this current round of dispute, we will continue to see our nation’s foreign and military policy controlled by what one commenter termed “these backroom guys” for the interminable future. This probably won’t change until something momentous and catastrophic happens, or until Congress removes the possibility of being bribed by anonymous contribution$ and/or the threat of negative lobbying by associated groups inside the country.