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Several days ago I wrote a piece about the possible water shortages that might occur if ground transportation were interrupted. This developed from a small piece I noted at Gorillas Guides, a very handy look into the Iraqi press, written by locals and what I think of as refugees – Iraqis in Jordan, Kuwait, and other countries. As I noted, Gorillas Guides does the translating for me, which I appreciate.

Of course, if the road supply routes were interrupted for some reason (violence being the most obvious) more than water would become scarce. Fresh food would quickly disappear. Most of the larger US bases look like a suburban mall, with Wendy’s or Burger Kings, Kentucky Fried Chicken stores, and even ice cream outlets. Much the same fare is available in the official mess halls, operated by KBR, a division of Mr Cheney’s Halliburton. I certainly don’t begrudge the troops anything, but this sort of home-style sustainment has a portion of the $12 Billion we’re spending each month. These little bits of home are operated and supplied by contractors and our grandchildren will be footing the bill when the Japanese and Chinese ask for payment. The troops could get along on MREs but it wouldn’t quite be the same. Say what you will about MREs, they do provide a balanced, if unexciting diet. The right calories to sustain a soldier in the field, low fat and high protein. And therein lies part of the problem about bringing America to Iraq.

BAGHDAD — When Spc. Matthew Curll left basic training for Iraq nearly a year ago, he traded a bland diet of MREs for burgers, pie and Fudgsicles.

"You go from a lot of MREs and crappy stuff at the mess hall to prime rib on Sundays," said Curll, 21, of Lancaster, Mass., over a dinner of baked chicken followed by ice cream in Baghdad's fortified Green Zone.

"I wasn't expecting it at all," added Spc. Joe Reen, 23, of Norwood, Mass., finishing a turkey wrap and green salad. "You wanted to try everything."
…
The Army has loaded the menu at the 70 chow halls, run by contractor KBR, with a buffet of fattening fare, from cheese steaks to tacos and Rocky Road ice cream. Many soldiers gain more than 15 pounds on a deployment, military dietitians say. They are also seeing soldiers return from Iraq with higher cholesterol, mostly due to their eating habits.

It’s probably true that the weight gains are more with base-bound troops rather than grunts going out every day or two, carrying 80 pounds of armor and combat gear in 120 degree heat. You’re not likely to put on poundage under those conditions unless you live on Haagen Dazs in the FOB.

So, water and food could become a problem. But there are other areas of concern.

Newshoggers takes a look at another vital logistical item that could be in short supply if we ever lost control of the supply routes.

The US Army and Marine Corps are massive users of supplies hauled a long distance from secure rear area bases, up the roads to large consolidated logistics bases, and then spoked and hubbed out to the forward operating base camps. Here the last few gallons of the barrel that started in Kuwait are poured into the tank or MRAP or the base generator that powers the radios. Fuel and easy access to fuel is ultimately one of the American military's great force multipliers and core competencies.

Noah Schactman over at Wired's Danger Room has a good (but slightly old) graph of where one particular type of fuel for daily operations in Iraq comes from.

Notice how there are only three entry points, and one, with approximately 15% of the total load is coming in from Turkey and travels through Kurdistan before reaching major US bases. As Cernig noted yesterday, there are 140,000 Turkish troops ready to invade northern Kurdistan, so I have severe doubts about the willingness of Turkish civilian truck drivers to drive through Kurdistan if the Turkish Army crosses the border in sustainable force.

Another 15% or so of the fuel comes in through the Anbar desert which right now is slightly safer than it has been over the past couple of years, but it is still one of the leading areas of insurgent activity. The last major route with 70% of the throughput is the Kuwait City to Baghdad route. USA Today notes that convoy busting is becoming a popular activity among insurgents, militias, and criminal gangs in the south.

Just keep this in mind --- if the fuel supply lines are cut, the US Army and Marines are immobile and operationally useless....

Actions against convoys have more than tripled in the last year. These convoys are protected by some of the more than 160,000 contractors in Iraq. No one really knows for certain, but it’s estimated there are about 30,000 armed civilian contractors in Iraq, with about 4,000 of them being Westerners, perhaps 15,000 Iraqis and the rest from other countries.

It has been noted that the US forces in Iraq don’t have the manpower to protect their own convoys.