There is a story developing in the south of Iraq which will have serious consequences for our occupation of that conquered country.

The British Army has been defeated in Iraq and left with no option but to retreat from the country, claims radical Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Violent resistance and a rising death toll among UK troops has forced a withdrawal, he said in an interview with The Independent.

"The British have given-up and they know they will be leaving Iraq soon," Mr Sadr said. "They are retreating because of the resistance they have faced. Without that, they would have stayed for much longer, there is no doubt."

The young nationalist cleric heads Iraq's largest Arab grassroots political movement, and its powerful military wing, the Mehdi army. It has clashed frequently with British forces in southern Iraq, most recently in the battle for power over the oil-rich port city of Basra. Scores of British soldiers have been killed and wounded by Sadrist militants.

The signs have been plain for all to see. As Britain has handed over some of the governates and provinces in the area it was assigned to pacify and occupy, attacks against British troops have increased. They British forces are now principally confined to the Basra area.

At the beginning of the year, Britain had just over 7,000 troops in two provinces of southeastern Iraq. Current force strength is down to 5,500, confined to two main bases, Basra airport and the Basra Palace, which is under siege. Another reduction to 5,000 is expected this summer. Any additional cuts would be part of a complete withdrawal. Defence secretary Des Browne said last week that further reductions had not been decided upon and would only take place in agreement with the Americans.

Take this with a grain of salt. Gordon Brown is not Tony Blair. He comes from a different social and political background and it’s fair to say he won’t see the “special relationship” with the US quite the same way. It’s certain he and his ministers view George Bu$h with far less than the adolescent worship Mr Blair espoused. When domestic political pressure becomes too costly, Mr Brown will order a withdrawal.

Moqtada al-Sadr:

"The British have realised this is not a war they should be fighting or one they can win," Mr Sadr said. "The Mehdi army has played an important role in that." He also warned that Britain's involvement in the invasion of Iraq had made the UK a less safe place to live. "The British put their soldiers in a dangerous position by sending them here but they also put the people in their own country in danger," he said. "They have made enemies among all Muslims and they now face attacks at home because of their war. That was their mistake."

Britain’s society is different, and there is less economic opportunity. Muslim immigrants to the US seem to dedicate themselves to getting ahead and building a future, no matter what the xenophobic masturbations of the international Caliphate our never-right might ordain. I don’t want to say we don’t have sleeper cells of martyrs in this country. We haven’t seen any evidence of that, and given the easy access to guns we might well have seen that, rather than winger psychos blowing up abortion clinics and shooting people on school campuses.

The British are leaving Basra. Depend on it. It vastly complicates the continued American occupation of Iraq. There is another, connected Independent article today about that.

Last month Gordon Brown said after meeting George Bush at Camp David that the decision to hand over security in Basra province – the last of the four held by the British – "will be made on the military advice of our commanders on the ground". He added: "Whatever happens, we will make a full statement to Parliament when it returns [in October]."

Two generals told The Independent on Sunday last week that the military advice given to the Prime Minister was, "We've done what we can in the south [of Iraq]". Commanders want to hand over Basra Palace – where 500 British troops are subjected to up to 60 rocket and mortar strikes a day, and resupply convoys have been described as "nightly suicide missions" – by the end of August. The withdrawal of 500 soldiers has already been announced by the Government. The Army is drawing up plans to "reposture" the 5,000 that will be left at Basra airport, and aims to bring the bulk of them home in the next few months.

It looks as if Mr Brown also listens to his commanders, the difference being they tell him what is and not what he wants to hear. But the loss of a heavy brigade of troops positioned to guard our logistic lines is a serious threat. Sixty rocket and mortar attacks daily is actually more like a state of siege.

The Americans are very unhappy, of course, and MNF-I and CENTCOM especially have been saying the British were “defeated.” That may or may not be accurate, since our generals are in denial about progress (or lack of progress) in the north.

American criticism of Britain's desire to pull back in southern Iraq has recently become public, with a US intelligence official telling The Washington Post this month that "the British have basically been defeated in the south". A senior British commander countered, "That's to miss the point. It was never that kind of battle, in which we set out to defeat an enemy." Other officers said the British force was never configured to "clear and hold" Basra in the way the Americans are seeking to do in Baghdad.

Somehow the British got the idea that their job was to train Iraqis to govern their own provinces and learn to defend themselves. No one from the Likud Party explained it all to them.

Immediate American discontent is said to centre on the CIA's reluctance to leave Basra Palace, an important base for watching Iran, which may explain why Britain has held on to the complex until now. But last week it was reported that US intelligence operatives were in the process of pulling out. Further ahead, the US is concerned over the security of its vital supply line from Kuwait, with some American commanders saying that if the British withdraw, American troops will have to be sent south to replace them. As the hub of Iraq's oil industry, Basra is also a tempting prize for the Shia militias battling each other for control.

If the CIA is abandoning a prime listening post, we’re about to see some momentous changes. Having to spread our already over-stretched forces even farther will be a terrific problem. For one thing it could spell death to the 15 month tours as I speculated here.

Here are the facts: George Bu$h will not allow one soldier to be withdrawn while he occupies our Oval Office. Not one. In fact, he is going to insist on a larger presence in Iraq, and the Joint Chiefs will be ordered to make it happen. That means that the current 15 month deployments will become 18 months for the Army, and the just-increased 12 month deployments for the Marines will jump to 15 months. Twelve month down times at home will be shortened to nine months. Several thousand more sailors and airmen will be retrained as infantrymen, military policemen and convoy guards.

Without the British to cover our flanks we’ll need increased convoy guards to maintain our supply lines. Good thing they’re planning to add more retrained sailors and airmen into the sandbox. And the chance to put armed troops on still more of the Iraq/Iran border is just too good to be missed. That will mean greater opportunities to get their war on with Iran.