Sometime ago we learned that all those manly valorous operations designed to trap the mythic “al-Qaeda in Iraq” fighters and leaders supposedly sheltering in and around Baghdad and Baquba had failed.

It seems the bad guys have just migrated. Stars and Stripes visits the 5th Battalion, 82nd Field Artillery Regiment, part of the 1st Cavalry:

After two years of few casualties, attacks have spiked against the soldiers based in the northern reaches of Iraq at Forward Operating Base Q-West in Ninevah province.

Insurgents, fleeing the heightened presence of American “surge” troops in Baghdad and Diyala province, sought refuge in the sparsely populated Zaab triangle, a cluster of three towns — Aitha, Hechel and Sharqat — tucked in the Tigris River Valley near the border between Ninevah and Saladin provinces.

The boundary area, a seam in the patrol regions of Iraqi and American security forces, was a convenient safe haven for militants.

It’s very surprising that “the enemy” has moved to areas that aren’t heavily occupied in order to rest and recover. I’ll bet Generalissimo Field Marshal Fred Kagan never expected that. I wonder whether the “Managers” at MNF-I expected it? It seems kind of basic to me, but what do I know? I was just a puke EM.

“There are former regime assets up here, former Baathists who are probably inflaming insurgents,” said Lt. Col. Robert McLaughlin, commander of the 5-82 FA. “They use this area to rest, refit and re-arm.”

But as insurgents were pushed north, officers with the unit said, what was once the home for “white collar” operatives — the financers and planners of Sunni extremists’ attacks in other parts of the country — also proved fertile ground for the guerrilla tactics so common in Baghdad.

Capt. Iven T. Sugai, commander of Alpha Company, said American soldiers in the area were accustomed to seeing one to two roadside bombs a month before this past summer. But from mid-July to mid-August, 44 roadside bombs had been discovered, he said. In all, five 5-82 FA soldiers have been killed this summer.

But “once we hit September, it slowed down dramatically,” Sugai said.

So, maybe the surge escalation is working?

No, maybe it isn’t.

Military leaders at Q-West said the unit has gone on the offensive. It has established an outpost at Hechel and launched a series of raids in the last month targeting the Zaab triangle.

“We’ve been hitting it hard,” said Maj. George Johnson. “For the past two to three weeks we have had 12 named operations that have results in 24 detainees.”

Unit leaders said the raised tempo also was in response to the annual increase of attacks during the holy month of Ramadan. “One hopes that the day will come when people will focus on their faith and not attacks on Ramadan,” McLaughlin said.

So LTC McLaughlin says things are getting worse while his company commanders say it’s getting better. On the other hand 12 raids netting 24 detainees over a period of two weeks is actually good for COIN operations. Intelligence gathering is difficult, and you have to eat the elephant in small bites.