This morning’s WaPo has an intriguing article by the respected writers Thomas Ricks and Karen DeYoung speculating that al Qaeda has been so badly attritted that it might no longer constitute a viable threat to Iraq security.

The U.S. military believes it has dealt devastating and perhaps irreversible blows to al-Qaeda in Iraq in recent months, leading some generals to advocate a declaration of victory over the group, which the Bush administration has long described as the most lethal U.S. adversary in Iraq.

But as the White House and its military commanders plan the next phase of the war, other officials have cautioned against taking what they see as a premature step that could create strategic and political difficulties for the United States. Such a declaration could fuel criticism that the Iraq conflict has become a civil war in which U.S. combat forces should not be involved. At the same time, the intelligence community, and some in the military itself, worry about underestimating an enemy that has shown great resilience in the past. [emph added]

Indeed, if a-Q is out of the running for the “greatest existential military threat to Western civilization” e-vah! then there’s just no need for 160,000 troops to remain over there, refereeing a civil war and occasionally getting trapped against the boards and high-sticked. That would also be a very inconvenient circumstance for Messers Bu$h and Cheney, who rely upon terrorizing Americans long enough to dismantle the rest of our brutally savaged constitution and turn our country into the largest prison ever seen by mankind.

"I think it would be premature at this point," a senior intelligence official said of a victory declaration over AQI, as the group is known. Despite recent U.S. gains, he said, AQI retains "the ability for surprise and for catastrophic attacks." Earlier periods of optimism, such as immediately following the June 2006 death of AQI founder Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in a U.S. air raid, not only proved unfounded but were followed by expanded operations by the militant organization.

There is widespread agreement that AQI has suffered major blows over the past three months. Among the indicators cited is a sharp drop in suicide bombings, the group's signature attack, from more than 60 in January to around 30 a month since July. Captures and interrogations of AQI leaders over the summer had what a senior military intelligence official called a "cascade effect," leading to other killings and captures. The flow of foreign fighters through Syria into Iraq has also diminished, although officials are unsure of the reason and are concerned that the broader al-Qaeda network may be diverting new recruits to Afghanistan and elsewhere.

Stung by the public disclosure of their faithlessness and treason in disclosing vital intelligence information in both the SITE and Plame scandals, and reeling from catastrophic public backlash against Mr Bu$h’s pigheaded and selfish denial of health insurance to helpless poor children, as well as the revelation that the famous and laughable Bu$h gut instinct about Vladimir Putin’s “soul" was wrong, the malAdministration is desperate for some positive domestic news, and this little fable will be squeezed for two days of glory and victory laps until the 400 or so Saudis that comprise al Qaeda in Iraq pull off some spectacular and embarrassing coup.

An expected benefit of the triumphantly announced demise of al Qaeda will be the increased drumbeat of Iran, the “greatest existential military threat to Western civilization” e-vah! and how Tehran must be nuked until it glows in the dark. Only this step will satisfy the Likud Party, which makes the major US military and foreign policy decisions in the Middle East.

There has been much speculation that Generalissimo Field Marshal Fred Kagan’s surge escalation has actually performed very well, and has harried and pursued al Qaeda until it is a mere shadow of its former self.

We’ve heard this song before, so excuse me if I sit out this dance.

While a victory declaration might have the "psychological aspect" of discouraging recruitment to a perceived lost cause, the White House official said, advantages overall would be minimal. "I recognize that there are pros to saying, 'Hey, listen, the bad guys are on the run.'" But if AQI were later able to demonstrate residual capabilities with a series of bombings, "even though it was temporary," he said, "the question becomes: How does this play out in terms of public opinion?"

That one’s easy. The public will say, “Those incompetent, lying mutts got it wrong once again.”