Via today’s Agonist we learn that US military officials have decided that Afghanistan is going to be easy pickings this Spring.

The Taliban are unlikely to launch a spring offensive in Afghanistan this year because all their energies will be focused in Pakistan, United States military officials said. But as that battle heats up, US officials added that they do not have enough intelligence on the ground in Pakistan.

A couple of observations here:

1. Taliban wield the ax ahead of new battle

KARACHI - With the Taliban's spring offensive just months away, the Afghan front has been quiet as Taliban and al-Qaeda militants have been heavily engaged in fighting security forces in Pakistan's tribal regions.

But now Taliban leader Mullah Omar has put his foot down and reset the goals for the Taliban: their primary task is the struggle in Afghanistan, not against the Pakistan state.

Mullah Omar has sacked his own appointed leader of the Pakistani Taliban, Baitullah Mehsud, the main architect of the fight against Pakistani security forces, and urged all Taliban commanders to turn their venom against North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces, highly placed contacts in the Taliban told Asia Times Online. Mullah Omar then appointed Moulvi Faqir Mohammed (a commander from Bajaur Agency) but he refused the job. In the past few days, the Pakistani Taliban have held several meetings but have not yet appointed a replacement to Mehsud.

Maybe you ought to pay attention to what your enemy says. So far, they've done exactly what they have declared they would do. I dunno, it just seems easy to me, although I lack a degree from Army Vo-Tech and advanced training from the glamor school.

2. From the same article, here’s some on-the-ground intelligence for US military officials:

This major development occurred at a time when Pakistan was reaching out with an olive branch to the Pakistani Taliban. Main commanders, including Hafiz Gul Bahadur and the main Afghan Taliban based in Pakistan, Sirajuddin Haqqani, signed peace agreements. But al-Qaeda elements, including Tahir Yuldashev, chief of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, undermined this initiative.

"We refused any peace agreement with the Pakistani security forces and urged the mujahideen fight for complete victory," Yuldashev said in a jihadi video message seen by Asia Times Online. Yuldashev's closest aide and disciple, Mehsud, last week carried out an attack on a Pakistani security post and then seized two forts in the South Waziristan tribal area.

I know you’re really aching to get stuck in combat in yet another country, but look – you can’t handle the two countries you’re stuck in now. Why not allow Pakistan, a sovereign country, to handle its own internal affairs?

Pakistan bombed South Waziristan and sent in heavy artillery and tanks for a major operation against Mehsud. Other important commanders are now in North Waziristan and they support the peace agreements with the Pakistani security forces.

Pakistan's strategic quarters maintain the planned operation in South Waziristan is aimed particularly at eliminating Mehsud.

"While talking to government representatives in the jirga [peace council] we could clearly discern a grudge against Baitullah Mehsud and the Mehsud tribes by the security forces. And there are signs that the government is obsessed with a military operation to make Baitullah Mehsud a martyr," a leading member of the peace jirga in South Waziristan, Maulana Hisamuddin, commented to Voice of America.

Yes, we’re all concerned about the possibility that Pakistan might fall to a fanatical Islamist movement, and thereby the nukes might come under their control. Well, leaving aside the fact that George Bu$h engineered this danger by his refusal to properly prosecute the Taliban and al-Qadeda (headed by O b L, scion of a family the Bu$h family has done business with for 30 years) it might be a good idea to use the nuclear bunker busters that Mr Cheney has been slavering to use in Iran on Pakistan’s nuclear weapons instead.

By the way, gentlemen, if, as MG David Rodriguez suggests, you’re not concerned with the Taliban making a spring offensive, why is GEN Dan McNeill asking for another 3,000 troops?

As NATO forces struggle to contain a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan, the US is expected to send 3000 more marines to that nation in advance of an anticipated spring offensive.

U.S. Army General Dan McNeill, the top NATO commander in Afghanistan, made the formal request for reinforcements this week. It has already received the backing of Central Command and the Joint Chiefs of Staff and is likely to get quick approval from Defense Secretary Robert Gates.

However, according to the Canadian Broadcasting Company, the move has already been under consideration by the Pentagon for the last three months, while the Bush administration "has dragged its heels," partly out of fear that it would be seen as "an admission the US was far too absorbed in Iraq, while it left Afghanistan to dangerously deteriorate."

Isn’t this actually a reversal of your decision last year to not allow the Marines to concentrate in Afghanistan?

A confused man might not be able to decide whether you gentlemen have no frickin idea what to do with the mess the neocons left you with, or whether you just have too many uniformed PR flacks practicing public diplomacy through misrepresentation.