George W. Bush will send SECSTATE Condoleezza Rice to Kenya on Monday. I don't have great hope for success:

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush said Thursday he will dispatch Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to go to Kenya to demand a halt to the violence that has left more than 1,000 people dead.

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Sending a person who has screwed the pooch on every assignment she's been given (National Security Advisor before 11 Sept. 2001, running the post-'major combat action' situation in Iraq) is not competent diplomacy, let alone having her make "demands" of people we've largely ignored (beats me who else they'd dispatch from a department filled with political hacks in leadership positions). They've been down that road with the British, who only understood how to play on the ethnic divisions present. I feel safe saying the best we can hope for from this "initiative" is that we won't make things worse.

A delegation of people who see Kenya as 'a country full of black folks' is as useful as planning an operation in Iraq before knowing the differences between Sunni and Shi'a.

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I have yet to talk about the conflict in Kenya because I was hoping it would fix itself. No, I'm not that naive but I guess I was hoping the process over there wouldn't explode the way it has, given the political reconciliation five years ago. Also, when I talk to people about Kenya (and Africa in general), their eyes generally glaze over and they walk away shaking their heads. "Doesn't F-man know Kenya, and the rest of Africa north of Pretoria, is a lost cause," they mutter as they get farther away. Most folks only see Africa as a place "we send money to", intimating we don't get any return for our dollar. (The subject of a post for another day is how little we actually do give in foreign aid.)

Kenya gained their independence from Great Britain in 1963 and has moved forward in spurts. There has always been a divide between the 'haves' and 'have nots', the commissioners of the eight Districts running them as personal fiefdoms (they learned well from the British), not to mention the army's influence in the process. I learned quite a bit about how Kenya works and its place as a potential counter to South Africa as a power broker on the African continent when I did research for my novel Technocracy. It is one reason I used Kenya as a metaphor for Africa and as a beginning point for the unification of the African economy and eventually bringing the entire continent to First World status. Ah, but were reality as easy to manipulate as the plot of a novel.

For most of its existence a multi-ethnic nation of strongmen with one legally recognized political party, corruption ran rampant over 40 years and the wealth is concentrated in the ruling class, regardless of the democratic reforms in the past half-decade. Most in the country live in poverty and from what I understand, the friction has been building for quite some time. Now, at the time when Kenya should finally be realizing its full potential, this conflict threatens to set the nation back 20 years:

Kenya is at a pivotal moment in its history. A bungled election has brought to the surface a myriad of deep social tensions that have been left to simmer in Kenyan society since independence. Political deadlock has added more fuel to the fire, with the fallout having serious consequences for Kenya's economy and society.

Ha, see, caught ya. I know your index finger is already on the mouse, ready to click away to something less eye-glazing. Well, if you do, you’ll miss this link to the Meatball (not work safe), who metaphorically explains Kenya’s yearning to be a player on the world stage, a major one on the African stage:

I only turn our attention to Kenya as I remain troubled by freaky memories of giving fire sale golf lessons to a strapped Kenyan ambassador who hoped that learning golf with his embarrassing entry level set of Mizuno clubs would aid in networking his way into the boozing echelons of G8 diplomats.

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Kenya has the potential to be that player, already a center for communications and transport. The major economies have seen that potential too and are invested there, though the political unrest and corruption (and rights violations) have always mitigated the amount investment needed to be competitive with South Africa. Safari tourism has also been affected, especially in the Rift Valley region, where the wildlife and scenery tempts tourists to visit and explore.

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Violent ethnic clashes marked by swinging machetes, flying stones and the whiz of arrows have since left hundreds dead. Victims with arrows, sometimes poisoned, lodged in their heads and chests have become increasingly common, say officials in Rift Valley hospitals.

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The Rift, home to the Luo, Kikuyu, and Kalenjin tribes, is one of the places the unrest is concentrated. Tanzania is drawing a lot of that bleed off, many tribes tourist-friendly and understanding of the economics of tourism. As investors and tourists leave, the gap between rich and poor will widen even more, most likely prolonging the conflict.

Kenya is a prime example of a nation that would benefit from leadership by the US or another major entity willing to invest in these people. Considering the situation in Zimbabwe and Cote d’Ivoire, a strong Kenya would be another anchor of stability and prosperity on the African continent.

Unfortunately, western (namely US) interests are more oriented toward 'resource protection' at this point. And this point brings us to why I even give a damn about the potential of a nation on the east coast of Africa. It is because we are all in this together and, in the 21st Century, the world is getting smaller.

I grew up at a time when TVs were black and white, when you had to yell for the other party to hear you when you made a long distance call, and it took weeks to carry on a correspondence with someone on another continent. Now, as I look at the site stats every week for the Brain, I see readers who stop by daily from every part of the world.

We see how economic disturbances here affect markets in almost every nation, how our unilateral actions in other countries have unexpected blowback effects. (I was in Afghanistan in the early '80s when we were arming Osama and his Mujaheddin, unwittingly nourishing the roots of what would become al-Qaeda.) It is time we start caring about what happens in the Third World because they are our future. It is not a place where we can fight proxy wars (and then leave) and expect not to feel the consequences years down the line. If we don't start giving a damn now, our children and theirs will feel the effects of our actions (or lack thereof) today.

It's time to show some interest in places that don't have resources we feel the need to exploit. It's time to give some real attention to places where the resource most valuable to us are the people who live there. If we invest in people, we can only profit from their success.

Update:

It seems other nations see what I do. The Chinese have been investing in Kenya's infrastructure and offshore oil projects. Looks like Administration d'Bush dropped the ball* once again:

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China's stance is consistent with its policy of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs. An editorial in Beijing's People's Daily on January 14th upset Kenya's opposition by saying that "Western-style democratic theory simply isn't suited to African conditions but rather it carries with it the root of disaster. The elections crisis in Kenya is just one example."

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The Chinese get it. Any wonder why NYC Public Schools are offering high school level language curriculum in Cantonese and Mandarin?

*Great thanks to Jeb at Foreign Policy Watch for the link.