Well, today is Day One of the tentative truce between Sadr and Maliki, and, seemingly it is working as the BBC is reporting...

The Baghdad neighbourhood of Sadr City appears calm on the first day of a ceasefire between the Iraqi government and Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr.

The authorities reported no violence on Sunday as gunmen withdrew from the streets and shops reopened.

Here's the Gulfnews report...

Senior US military officials, however, have cautioned reporters on Sunday that the Iraqi government is still working out details of the truce with the elements of radical cleric Moqtada Al Sadr's Mahdi Army.

"We did see a dialogue yesterday. It is important to emphasise that it is an ongoing dialogue process," says US military spokesman Rear Adm. Patrick Driscoll. "It is premature to say there is an agreed truce." The US military has repeatedly emphasised that its clashes are with rogue elements of Al Sadr's Mahdi Army.

The concrete barricade which the US military has been erecting in the southern section of the impoverished area and which had emerged as a key factor in fierce clashes over the past several weeks remained, however.

Rear Admiral Patrick said the 14-point agreement between the Sadrists and the government had led to a "decline in operations from last night" in Sadr City.

Now, some interesting details have appeared and demonstrate how tentative the truce is... As this report highlights: Disagreements mar truce deal between government and Al Sadr men

The extent of the deal between the government and Al Sadr's supporters, which was brokered by lawmakers and was scheduled to take effect on Sunday, quickly became murky.

Under the terms announced by the cleric's lead negotiator, Shaikh Salah Obeidi, Al Sadr's Mahdi Army militia would set aside their weapons and allow the government to pursue individuals wanted for attacks, provided that there is a warrant.

In return, the government would stop what he called "random" raids and open blocked roads into the cleric's Baghdad stronghold, Sadr City.
Obeidi said the document made no mention of the government's demand that the militia disband and surrender its medium and heavy-grade weapons, points the cleric's representatives are not prepared to discuss.

But Ali Dabbagh, a spokesman for Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki, said all sides had agreed that only the government is authorised to maintain an army and impose law.

"The government has the right to raid and search any place that is suspected to contain heavy and medium weapons," he said in a statement.

Here's the real deal breaker...

'US will keep bombing'

"There is no point that prevents the Americans from performing military operations in Sadr City," Ameri said. "The US forces are and will continue bombing ... the places that are launching mortar rounds or rockets at their bases and/or the Green Zone."

That was the one factor that needed to be addressed the most, as it has caused the most death and destruction in Sadr City... Dr. iRack posted an excellent article on our COIN ops in Sadr City...

As fighting broke out in Sadr City after the Maliki government's Basra offensive, and rockets began to rain down on the Green Zone, the U.S. military had to make a choice: Should it finally go in and attempt to employ an all-out COIN effort in the slum of 2 million? The answer was: kind of.

1. Isolate (portions) of the population from militants and create safe zones. It has walled off about a third of Sadr City to limit the area from which JAM can fire off rockets/mortars. It is in the process of completing a 12-foot wall, has set up combat outposts in the area to provide 24/7 security, and is making plans with the Iraqi government to flood the zone with services to win over the population.

2. Discriminately target militants and disrupt their networks. The coalition has aggressively targeted rocket/mortar teams (Dr. iRack's sources say that this has been largely effective -- rockets continue to be fired, especially during dust storms, but the aim is going down as the top-notch teams have been eliminated). It has also continued to engage in targeted raids against high-value JAM/"special group" targets. American rules of engagement require positive identification of military targets before using deadly force, and the coalition has relied on low-yield precision-guided munitions to limit risks to surrounding civilians (yet, reports suggest, significant numbers of civilians have still been caught up in the fray.)

He went on to dissemble where we f*cked it up, and, pointed out that we're caught in a no-win situation. Unfortunately, this truce seems to only free up Iraqi forces to launch Operation Lion's Roar on Mosul. Which commenced today with Maliki, personally flying up to lead the operation like he did when he flew down to oversee the Knight's Assault on Basra...

Lion's Roar was launched against the Sunnis, in and around Mosul. What a brilliant strategy, actively antagonize every disparate political and religious bloc in Iraq! I'm sure he'll receive an overwhelming landslide victory in October's elections for all his efforts!

I'd like to point out an error in yesterday's post, I'd said that it was Maliki's initiative to broker the truce, as Erdla and Mark from Ireland chided me, they stated that it was Sadr who led the initiative... I'm still skeptical of that view, but, I wanted to put it on the record! For all you Mothers out there, I'd like to extend a heart-felt Happy Mother's Day...!