Today, Dar Al Hayat published this op-ed from Harvard Professor Roger Owen, entitled: "Understanding The Recent Changes In Iraqi Political Dynamics." By and large, I concur with much of what he asserts, but, I do take issue with some of his premises. Most notably...

I have often argued that, whether they intended to or not, the American and British occupiers have forced Iraq into a pattern of political sectarianism with many similarities with Lebanon. To work, it needs cooperation among the sectarian leaders at the top, a prospect that has become more of a possibility as a result of al-Maliki's actions in Basra.

Yet, like Lebanon, there are many obstacles to permanent agreement even after the exit of the major occupying forces. Neighboring states can continue to exercise a powerful influence from outside. While internal actors, like Hizbollah, like al-Sadr's Mahdi's army, are able to play a positive or a negative role by turns, cooperating with the other sectarian parties where they feel it useful, but determined at all costs to hang on to their militias for self-defence and on the grounds that they are needed to protect the country from dangerous enemies outside.

You don't have to be a Max Weber to understand the importance Iraqis attach to the notion that governments seek a monopoly of violence. If you are powerless you may welcome it. If it appears threatening, you will seek to offset it with military power of your own. Iraq has now reached one of those turning points where, with a large number of its citizens beginning to welcome the appearance of a strengthening national army, the problem of either disarming or
incorporating the sectarian militias has at last reached the political table.
Even if there is still no consensus as to how it can most properly be
addressed.

I'd say that the prospect of cooperation amongst the major political blocs has been diminished by the current Knight's Assault operation of Maliki, in both Basra and most certainly Sadr City! As I pointed out in this post , this rhetoric is not gonna win him any friends...

Iraq's prime minister has threatened to disarm Shia militias and Sunni fighters by force if they refuse to lay down their weapons.

The tough talk from Nuri al-Maliki, who launched a crackdown on Shia groups last month, came as at least 13 people died on Wednesday in the latest clashes in Baghdad's Sadr City.

Al-Maliki said that the al-Mahdi army of Muqtada al-Sadr, a Shia leader, along with groups such as al-Qaeda in Iraq must be dissolved.

He demanded that they hand over their weapons, stop interfering in state affairs, give up wanted men and stop running their own courts.

"The alternative is the continuation of force and clashes until we reach the end, to get rid of the weapons and the gangs who are carrying weapons," he said.

"We can't build a state along with militias."

That's a piss-poor way of extending your hand across the aisle... I would also dispute the notion that the Iraqi people are beginning to embrace the strengthening National Army, as I've posted about before, the use of the IA in Sadr City has been rejected by all the Political Parties in parliament with the exception of Maliki's SCIRI party and Dawa which is also affiliated with Maliki... We're talking about opposition from the Sunnis, Shi'a, and Kurds! So where's the love...?
Also, Maliki failed to get this memo from Betrayus...

"The important focus has to be on the way ahead and Iran truly wanting its neighbour to the west... a fellow Shia-led government, to succeed, so there can be a constructive relationship," Petraeus said.

"I think it's very important to recognise that the Sadr trend, as a political movement, has every reason to be engaged in the political spectrum, in the political arena, in Iraq."

"It represents an important constituency in the citizenry of Iraq."

Juan Cole recently delved into the hazards of our Sunni policy in "Is the U.S. creating another Al- Qaeda in Iraq...?"

Given these political and sociological realities in Iraq the emergence and strengthening of the Al-Sahwa forces is a matter of concern. By arming a Sunni segment of the population, which had been close to Saddam Hussein, the U.S. is re-enforcing sectarian and political divisions within Iraq. The Al-Sahwa, much like the Taliban, is attempting to achieve its religious and political aims through the U.S. The activities of Al-Sahwa clearly demonstrates this fact. In February this year, the group suspended cooperation with the Coalition Forces and demanded resignation of the Police Chief of Diyala Province, who happens to be a Shia.

The common people still live in the midst of fear as according to them members of the Al-Sahwa have merely changed allegiance from Saddam Hussien to the Coalition Forces. A representative from the Iraqi Interior Ministry has expressed the opinion that Al-Sahwa has emerged as third security force in the country along with the Army and Police. Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki has agreed that intelligence reports establish that the Al-Qaeda operatives have been able to sneak into the Al-Sahwa groups creating major security concerns. The members of the Al-Sahwa are operating with a strategic purpose in mind and have clearly stated that they will resist any attempt by the U.S. to abandon the group after the short-term goals of the Coalition forces are achieved. In an interview with Patrick Cockburn, one of the Al-Sahwa leaders threatened to go war against the U.S. forces and Iraqi government if the demands of his group were not complied with.

Under these given conditions will the Al-Sahwa emerge any different from the Al-Qaeda after the Coalition Forces withdraw and these armed Sunnis are deprived of any role in the regular Iraqi Army?

What a Cluster F*ck! BTW, we killed two 'outlaws' today in Sadr City...! If ya have a little extra time, Pepe Escobar wrote an excellent article; The Iranian Chessboard