In an unexpected move, Muqtada al-Sadr declared...

The movement of anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr said Saturday that it would not take part in provincial elections this year, one day after it formed a new paramilitary group to fight U.S. troops.

The back-to-back moves suggested that Sadr is trying to bolster his position as the chief opponent of both the American troops in the country and the Iraqi government, following a year in which he ordered his Mahdi Army militia to observe a cease-fire and moved deeper into the political process.

Sadr's aides said he is recalibrating his strategy as the American military drawdown transforms the U.S. role in Iraq.

"We don't want anybody to blame us or consider us part of this government while it is allowing the country to be under occupation," said Liwa Smeisim, head of the Sadr movement's political committee.

Two competeing theories arise from that astonishing move... 1) Is it because Maliki's current operations has taken a toll on Sadr's core constituents... Or, 2) Sadr is playing a masterful game of outsider politicking...!

As Dr. iRack so eloquently points out...

1. Sadr is weakened (maybe even defeated). His recent decisions provide the final evidence of his capitulation in the face of overwhelming pressure from the ISF and U.S. military. This seems to be the dominant interpretation in some quarters.[...]

Critics of Sadr say he is pulling out of the elections to avoid embarrassing losses and keeping most of the Mahdi Army from fighting so that it will not face defeat by U.S. and Iraqi troops.

"These statements and allegations of special companies are nothing but attempts to cover up their weakness," said Kassim Ali, 24, a student at the Kufa Technical Institute. "The Mahdi Army cannot face up to the well-trained and well-equipped Iraqi army."

OR

2. Sadr is playing an outside-inside game. The goal is to solidify his brand as the true "outsider" nationalist opposition to the U.S. presence in Iraq, avoid any association with the Maliki government, and seek to gain power over the long-term (in the national elections in 2009?) as U.S. forces draw down. According to the WaPo, Liwa Smeisim, head of the Sadr movement's political committee, justified the decision to boycott the elections this way: "We don't want anybody to blame us or consider us part of this government while it is allowing the country to be under occupation." And, in the meantime, Sadr will probably still put up supporters in the provincial elections, although they just won't be labelled "Sadrists" and his movement will undoubtedly deny any direct affiliation with these politicians (i.e., the "inside" part of an outside-inside game). Again, the WaPo notes:

Speaking about provincial elections, which are scheduled for this fall, aides to Sadr said the movement would support "technocrats and independent politicians" to prevent rival political parties from dominating local governments. But they said the movement would not put forward its own candidates.

Similarly, the AFP reported:

"The Sadr group will not take part in the (provincial) elections as we did in the parliamentary election," said Sheikh Salah al-Obeidi, a spokesman for Sadr in the holy city of Najaf. . . .

[But] Obeidi said the group . . . will support "independent" candidates.

Dr. iRack's bet is on interpretation #2. In other words, it is not a genuine effort to boycott the elections, it is an end-around Maliki's threat to ban the Sadrists from the elections unless JAM is disbanded.

I agree with the second scenario... In regards to the new Operation 'Law-Abiding', which is still in the prepatory stages, contrary to what I'd said in my prior post, Mahalo to GG for correcting me... Aswat Aliraq reports that the Police Chief has been replaced...

Missan, Jun 15, (VOI) – A new police chief was appointed in Missan province as part of the measures taken by the Iraqi Interior Ministry in preparation for an upcoming security operation, the media and public relations director in Missan's police command said on Sunday.

"A ministerial decree has been issued to appoint Staff Brigadier Saad Ali Aati to replace Major General Ali Waham as the police chief in Missan," Colonel Mahdi Hussein told Aswat al-Iraq-Voices of Iraq- (VOI).
Ali Waham has been moved to another position in the ministry, Hussein noted, providing no further details.

Sounds like they're getting all set, as the NYTimes reports today...

The Iraqi Army continued to mass troops outside the southern city of Amara on Sunday and Iraq’s prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, offered a three-day amnesty and weapons buyback program to militants willing to surrender.

Similar offers in the past few months have presaged other military operations, in Basra, the Sadr City slum of Baghdad and in Mosul in northern Iraq.

This time, Mr. Maliki is preparing for an operation against the capital of a rural marsh region in southern Iraq, on the Iranian border, where Iraqi officials say a poisonous blend of militia lawlessness and weapons smuggling from Iran has created a chaotic situation.

The city is also the capital of the only province in Iraq dominated politically by followers of the radical Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr, a political rival for Mr. Maliki.

In the city Sunday, traffic thinned on the streets. Those who did venture out in cars said they feared American air strikes.

Some residents said the militiamen Mr. Maliki’s government is focusing on, and who Iraqi commanders say include leaders who fled from earlier fighting in nearby Basra, had again fled.

I guess only time will tell what the outcome shall be! The less violence the better...!